Poland’s GDP grew 1.3% year-on-year in Q1, marginally easing from a gain of 1.6% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of last year.

This is according to seasonally adjusted data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS) in a flash estimate published on Wednesday.

The growth suggests that economic recovery is becoming more sustained, even though it may not be following a steady upward trajectory as yet.

“Economic growth in Poland is gradually recovering but low activity in the economies of Poland’s main trading partners, especially the ongoing recession in the German industry, limits the scale of the recovery,” according to a statement from Bank Millennium.

Furthermore, adjusted quarterly expansion stood at 0.4%, following a decline of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in October-December, according to the GUS data.

Whereas unadjusted, GDP growth accelerated to 1.9% year-on-year in Q4, up from 1% year-on-year in the preceding quarter. A detailed breakdown of GDP data will be published at the end of this month.

According to analysts, the coming quarters are forecast to generate improved growth dynamics, bne IntelliNews reports.

“This is a confirmation of the long-awaited scenario for gradual economic recovery in 2024, mainly driven by the acceleration of private consumption. We believe that this positive trend will continue, lifting GDP growth to 3% in 2024,” stated Santander Bank Polska.

The GDP data for Q1 doesn't alter the monetary policy outlook significantly.

“In the conditions of recovering economic growth, high core inflation, high wage dynamics, as well as low unemployment, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) will not rush to reduce interest rates,” Bank Millennium went on to add.

The central bank’s reference interest rate has stayed at 5.75% since October.


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