Real GDP in Poland could see a weak 0.4% growth this year, but could rally to 2.6% in 2024, according to the latest forecast by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The low growth figure for this year is a result of weakened domestic demand together with high inflation and a restrictive monetary policy, according to the OECD.

“GDP growth should... increase to 2.9% in 2025 on the back of a rebound in consumption, accompanied by robust investment supported by funds from the EU Recovery Plan,” said analysts at the OECD.

CPI inflation is forecast to decline to 4.7% in 2024 and 3.7% in 2025 from this year’s figure of 11.8%, according to the OECD.

The organisation went on to add that the country’s monetary policy should be loosened gradually due to the risk of ongoing inflation and the degree of uncertainty in the forecast, The First News reports.

In addition, the OECD forecasts Poland’s deficit will hit 5.2% of GDP this year, 4.3% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025.

As per the European Union’s Maastricht criteria, public debt is forecast to reach 51.4% of GDP in 2023, 54.1% in 2024 and 56.4% in 2025.

Furthermore, the OECD predicts that global economic growth in 2024 will be weaker than this year. Although experts forecast economic growth of 2.9% in 2023, it is estimated to decline to 2.7% in 2024.

“The growth in 2023 was stronger than expected so far, but it is now weakening as the impact of tightened financial conditions, weak trade growth, and reduced confidence among businesses and consumers becomes more pronounced,” according to the OECD’s report published on Wednesday. Ongoing wars, persistent inflation and elevated interest rates will all impact the economy, the OECD added.


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